redfiona99

Prompt: Any fandom, any character, "same time next year?"
Fills:
Sandman, Dream & Hob by wingedflight
Meeting Adjourned (original) by kalira
Transformers G1, Hot Rod & OC by apprentice_lurk
All Elite Wrestling, Nigel McGuinness & Zack Sabre Jr. by d_generate_girl


Prompt: any, any, we found love in a hopeless place (with apologies if this has already been prompted)
Fills: Mad Max: Fury Road, Furiosa+Max (Furiosa/Max maybe) by last_haven

Unexpectedly, in November, two fics crossed the 1000 hits threshold.

The two are Today When", which is squooshy, guooshy Adam Ward Batman Bruce/Dick and Man, Indivisible which is Nolan-verse Bruce/Rachel, Rachel/Harvey, Bruce/Harvey, with a couple of touches from the comics and the Animated Series.

Mostly I'm learning that being Batman fic makes it more likely that a fic hits that (no really 3 out of 4 Batman fics have).

More sensibly, it's a really nice visual for "small numbers make for poor conclusions".

Behold the "properly" done graph now.



What's actually happened is that "Man, Indivisible" was the first fic posted once I ironed out how to do Kaplan-Meiers properly and because it's the oldest, there's a sudden drop now it has crossed over. Now, that's likely to go, quite quickly, as time progresses and more fics move past that time point, but it does make the figure look silly.

Splitting it into 'shippy and not 'shippy ( Behind the cut )

You still get the sudden drop but it's less steep. I do like how much more it looks like a "proper" Kaplan Meier now.

One other change is that 'shippy fics are now statistically more likely to cross the threshold, with p = 0.003.

An update from here.

You and Your Gucci Belt, kinky Batista/Orton fic, has reached 1000 hits.

( Large diagram beneath the cut )

The shippy fic is now definitely more likely to hit 1000 hits. The next two fics most likely to reach 1000 are both gen fic, but I doubt that will change the overall numbers because I write a lot more gen fic.

Okay, so I'm chickening out of this one because zombies give me the screamers so I'm not going to write about them. I think it's the total loss of self - gah.

I've also recently had a proper wake-up-screaming nightmare about contagious zombie Aliens from Alien invading an alien (small a) planet I was on. Thank you, subconscious for that one! (Gah!)

( Other days )

Because I find meme's a good way of keeping me posting regularly, I am going to be doing a variant on a 30 days of AU meme. A variant, because the original asked for a post a day for the 30 days which, yeah. And because I have no interest in some of the topics in the original version.

Where I've got an idea, I'll add a note in this post. If anyone has any ideas please leave a comment.

Day 1 - Hogwarts - Meta
Day 2 - Zombies
Day 3 - Medieval
Day 4 - Spies
Day 5 - School
Day 6 - Mythical Creature
Day 7 - Fairy Tale
Day 8 - Futuristic
Day 9 - Aliens
Day 10 - Fusion with another fandom
Day 11 - Slice-of-life
Day 12 - Deserted Island
Day 13 - Buddy Cops/Detective
Day 14 - Allegiance-Swap Original instructions say bad guys are good guys and vice versa
Day 15 - Sex-Swap
Day 16 - Superheroes
Day 17 - Animal Transformation
Day 18 - Wild West
Day 19 - Idols/Bands
Day 20 - Trading Places
Day 21 - Fantasy
Day 22 - Horror
Day 23 - Pre-21st Century
Day 24 - Apocalypse/Dystopia
Day 25 - Time travel
Day 26 - Dopplegangers
Day 27 - Twins
Day 28 - Cross Over
Day 29 - Pirates A bit more of the Jericho/Regal with Barrett lurking fic for Opera
Day 30 - Crossover

Fandom:

10,000 zines and counting: a library's quest to save the history of fandom - https://www.theverge.com/2015/9/4/9257455/university-iowa-fanzine-fan-culture-preservation-project

Miscellaneous:

Why is Houston so vulnerable to devastating floods? - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-41107049 From 2017

'It was quite a long way down' - George Rankine was 19 when he walked across the Forth Road Bridge before the road was built. The 74-year-old was a student in Edinburgh when his friend, who had a summer job at the bridge, asked his supervisor if they could walk over a mesh catwalk before it was removed. His boss pointed across the walkway and said: "Off you go then". - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-edinburgh-east-fife-41124739

Turning the dead into vinyl records - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40492466

Religion:

Has voodoo been misjudged? - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-41048840

Sport:

Football:

Transfer deadline day with the UK's youngest football agent - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-41115609 From 2017. More sound and light than actual information but interesting background stuff.

I'd like to thank st_aurafina for linking to this. I am having far too much fun, both writing for it and reading them.

Now if only I could find a way to make the Miss Marple fic(let) work.

Since another fic has reached 1000 AO3 hits (Hope, Possibly, which I was expecting to take till Christmas because it always gets a fair few hits around Christmas because it's a Love, Actually fic), I have updated this graph.



(Any opinions on if it looks better with or without the lines on the graph?)

The lines look more separated, because the new fic to hit 1000 is another shippy fic, but the difference is still not significant (at p <0.5).

Hopefully I will soon find the link to how to do it in R, because I want to be able to obtain a few stats that I can't do with this version (link what the median time taken is).

Take this quiz, reblog with your top ten, fight with your friends.

Previously done here although it now has 9 more options.

Rank Name
1 Enemies to Friends to Lovers
2 They Break Up (but then They Get Back Together)
3 Unusually Specific Occupation AU, Like, The Author Clearly Has The Same Job
4 Seemingly Unrequited Pining
5 Loyalty Kink
( 22 more underneath )

Some of the middle ones could be another way round on a different day, a "terrifyingly specific AU" does depend on some of the details, but yeah, this is mostly horribly accurate.

At work I get to play with data using SPSS and Prism.

One of the things we do with the data and programmes is Kaplan–Meier analyses.

But at home, I do not have such things, but I like to play about with stats, partly to understand how a measure works, partly because I find it calming.

I was originally going to look at survival times of US Presidents. But it struck me as morbid, and while I can just about do the maths for 2 categories, I had no idea what to do with the Whig presidents and George Washington. (Ideas about how to do deal with either of the above are gratefully accepted, I think I've got a hang on the maths now.)

Then I realised I had access to a whole swatch of data, which easily divides into two groups. Hits on my fics at AO3.

So I divided my fics into shippy and non shippy, and looked to see if any had more than 1000 hits. (1000 was chosen at random.)

Unfortunately, I can only easily get hold of data for the last 12 months and all of the fics that had reached 1000 were more than 12 months old at the beginning.

But I thought, what the hey, it's over time and it gives me a starting point so I plotted the data using the method outlined here - http://www.real-statistics.com/survival-analysis/kaplan-meier-procedure/survival-curve/

Last month, a new fic had achieved 1000 hits (Battalion of Worries, NC-17 rating shippy Torchwood fic).

The Kaplan-Meier curve now looks like this:



First thing to note, the difference is not significant (at a p<0.05 level. p value was 0.164776, thanks to ioplokon for noticing that I'd not put it in). (I cheated and used http://www.socscistatistics.com/tests/chisquare/Default.aspx to work out my X-squared values.)

I think the analysis might be clearer if I used the reciprocal to produce a curve that goes upwards not downwards.

I've also found another useful source (Survival analysis in clinical practice: analyze your own data using an Excel workbook by Lucijanić - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4800329/) so there's lots more fun I can have.