redfiona99 | Entries tagged with r stats

Game 27 was a dismal loss to Warrington. Dismal because Warrington, and even more dismal because the only points that Saints scored was from a penalty.

It seemed to be that sort of game (https://www.saintsrlfc.com/2024/09/07/saints-beaten-by-warrington-at-the-halliwell-jones-stadium/), with lots of their points also coming from penalties and 3 yellow cards - 2 for them, 1 for us. Yup, the team with fewer cards lost.

The "who is present together when Saints concede in game 27" matrix indicates quite clearly who the "missing" player was, enveloping Matty Lees in one group even though his line is paler than the players around him. Yes, I wonder who got the yellow card!

Matrix chart of who is present together when Saints conceded in game 27. Of interest is the second darkest group (they are in orange), containing Welsby, Paasi, Lees and Delaney. The line for Lees is a paler orange because he was not present with that group every time Saints conceded. On this occasion, it is a mark of shame because he had been yellow carded, which Warrington exploited to score twice.

Looking at the season to date:

When do Saints score?

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Bennison is now equal to Welsby in the "who scores for Saints?" bar chart. Game 27 was when Welsby made his return from injury.

( Bar chart under the cut )

Who is present when Saints score, up to game 27?

( Bar chart under the cut )

To my mind, the interesting thing here is you've got the three present the most (Blake, Welsby and Dodd), followed by one slowly declining cluster (Mbye, Hurrell, Sironen, Percival, Bell, Lomax, Clark, Makinson, Lees, Whitley, Mata'utia and Delaney) then a drop to the bottom cluster who also slowly reduce in number present as you go down the list (Batchelor, Bennison, Knowles, Davies, Ritson, Stephens, Robertson, Walmsley, Wingfield, Paasi, Burns, Royle, Vaughan and Whitby).

In the matrix of who plays together most often when Saints score, now updated to game 27, the top left border of Whitley, Bennison and Batchelor, first seen in game 26 is still there.

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The network graph looks like this ( under the cut )

When do Saints concede?

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The "who is present when Saints concede" chart has a very different shape to the "who is present when Saints score" bar chart. While that has three distinct sections, this chart has Blake and Lomax in the lead (because they have played a lot of minutes), then a slowly degrading curve covering most of the other players, then a small section of the infrequently present players at the bottom.

Bar chart of who is present when Saints concede. Blake is far in the lead, followed, some way behind by Lomax, then Mbye in third. Mbye is at the start of that sloping curve I mentioned above. The small section of infrequently present players are Stephens, Walmsley, Burns, Whitby, Royle and Wingfield.

The concede matrix looks very similar to last time, except fuzzier once more. It's interesting that as there's more data, the boundaries between the groups get weaker, then they suddenly pop back into strong colours, then weaken again (and so on).

Matrix chart of players together when Saints concede. The darkest area, the players most often together when Saints concede, is in the bottom right hand corner and includes Blake, Lomax, Clark, Whitley, Mbye, Lees, Ritson, Makinson, Welsby, Bell, Matautia, Dodd, Sironen, Percival and Delaney. The next most commonly together section is much paler, with occasional swirls of darker colour. It includes Davies, Stephens, Vaughan, Paasi, Robertson, Hurrell, Batchelor, Knowles and Bennison. The top and left-most is the palest and least often together. It includes Walmsley, Wingfield, Royle, Whitby and Burns.

Another interesting this is that, although the shape is similar, some of the players have moved section e.g. Ritson has moved from the middle group to the darkest group, in just one game.

The network graph is the same shape but has shifted about 15 degrees clockwise. Last time I suggested that players were either being sucked into the centre or moving out. It was being sucked in because they're all much closer now.

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Despite the piles of data, there are still changes, and the players brought in as other players were injured are now clearly part of the main group due to number of matches played.

It's been interesting to watch that exchange of players coming in and out of the matchday squad.

There may be a slight delay as I work on the Women's Euro 2025 network graphs. I am already seeing some interesting patterns.

Game 26 was Saints away at Huddersfield, which Saints won (https://www.saintsrlfc.com/matches/2024/first-team/huddersfield-giants-v-saints-2024-09-01/?swcfpc=1)

The biggest news to my mind was Morgan Knowles coming back. I was not alone in this opinion - https://www.sthelensstar.co.uk/sport/24556400.morgan-knowles-brought-saints-return/

The St. Helens Star, a biased source I grant, said, "He missed the best part of three months with a groin issue – a period that coincided with the beginning of Saints’ picking up other injuries and then subsequent run of defeats." (https://www.sthelensstar.co.uk/sport/24556400.morgan-knowles-brought-saints-return/)

It also points out he then missed 3 games due to a ban for a high tackle.

Saints lost 7 of the 11 games Knowles missed.

The really terrifying thing is that 2024 was Knowles's 10th year with Saints. Time flies, eh?

While the game was a victory for Saints, it also highlighted a worrying trend for yellow cards (although I forgive Noah Stephens entirely).

Bennison having to do the kicks reassured me in the "there is another" with regards to kicks if Percival is off the pitch.

None of match-specific pictures are all that interesting so I'll move on to the season to date diagrams.

Seeing Bennison shoot up the "who scores for Saints?" diagram after just one game shows how important the kicker is.

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Robertson is now on the list after scoring his first ever try for Saints. Overall 24 different players have scored either a try or conversion for Saints in 2024.

When do Saints score?
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Who is present when Saints score?

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The matrix of who is present when Saints score is interesting:

Matrix of who plays together when Saints score. The darkest part of the diagram (the players who play together most often when Saints score) is in the bottom and right part of the diagram and goes about halfway up. It contains Blake, Welsby, Dodd, Sironen, Hurrell, Percival, Clark, Lomax, Mbye, Bell, Makinson, Matautia, Delaney and Lees. Next up and out is a noticeably paler section of Davies, Knowles, Wingfield, Walmsley, Ritson, Robertson and Stephens. Then is the palest area, of Whitby, Vaughan, Burns, Royle and Paasi. Oddly, there is a dark border around the top and left hand side (of Whitley, Bennison and Batchelor, which suggests they are often together when Saints score but not with the others. Probably this is due to extended absences from the team for all 3.

Normally it would go darkest (most often together) in the bottom right hand corner and paler (less often together) as it moves up and to the left.

This time, that pattern happens but then there's a suddenly dark border along the top and left which consists of Whitley, Bennison and Batchelor, suggesting Saints score when they are on the pitch together. Which makes some sort of sense because Batchelor definitely missed some matches with an injury.

The equivalent network graph is slightly different again.

Network graph of who is present together when Saints score. There is the central core, with a secondary ring around it. On the second ring, clockwise, starting at 3 on the clock are Wingfield, Davies, Bennison, Knowles, Ritson, Robertson, Walmsley and Stephens. Sticking out top right is Royle, bottom centre is Paasi, bottom left is Vaughan, left but up a bit Burns.

It's interesting that two ways of presenting the same data give subtly different results.

There's no real changes to the pattern of the "who scores against Saints" diagram so I haven't included it.

The last 10 minutes of the game is still when Saints are most vulnerable.

( Bar chart under the cut )

Blake also leads the "who is present when Saints concede?" chart

( Bar chart under the cut )

The matrix diagram of who is present together when Saints concede is not as pretty as it was after game 25 (https://fulltimesportsfan.wordpress.com/2025/06/11/saints-ahoy-game-25-and-the-2024-season-to-date/). It think it's because the "curls" of more often together in the mid-section are less well defined than they were last time.

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Unlike the "who is present when Saints score?" matrix and network graphs, the concession network graph mostly matches the matrix diagram.

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Game 25 in 2024 was an unfortunate loss to Hull KR - https://www.saintsrlfc.com/matches/2024/first-team/saints-v-hull-kr-2024-08-24-2/?swcfpc=1

I don't care that Hull KR were the coming force, I don't like losing to them. Blake getting a yellow card and then Makinson getting a red didn't help, although I'm pleased that Whitby got his first try and conversion (and on his debut too).

The game-specific figures don't really add much so I'm not sharing them.

Whitby's two point-scoring moments move him to the bottom of the middle of the "who scores for Saints?" diagram.

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That might be a bad sign that either Saints's scoring pool wasn't diverse in 2024, or that they needed to score more points.

When do Saints score?

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That Saints didn't score while Blake or Makinson were off the pitch due to their cards means they maintain their positions on the "Who is present when Saints score?" chart.

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The matrix chart is back to being dark in one corner (bottom right) fading as it goes up and left.

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The network graph, interestingly, doesn't quite match. Whitby and Vaughan aren't present on the network graph, and Bennison is clearly outside the "frequently plays together" central blob, while he's in the second darkest area of the matrix chart. Davies has moved the other way.

Network graph of which Saints players are present together when Saints score. There are two less connect groups outside the main blob. At the top, from left to right, are Burns, Robertson, Ritson, Stephens, Paasi and Royle. Royle has more connections to the main blob that to the other players at the top. Burns is similarly out on the other side. At the bottom, from left to right are Walmsley, Bennison and Wingfield. Bennison is either about to be subsumed into the main blob or about to escape from it.

In an amusing coincidence, both matches vs Hull KR in 2024 featured Hull KR having the same number of point-scoring moments.

( Bar chart under the cut )

When do Saints concede?

The evidence for "in the last 10 minutes" is really building up.

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Who is present when Saints concede?

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Understandably, because he is also present for the most scoring moments, Blake is top of this chart. There's a large drop off until you hit Lomax in second.

The "who is present when Saints concede" matrix looks like the top left quadrant of a Roman mosaic of the sun. If nothing else, it's pretty.

Matrix chart of who is present when Saints concede. The overall view is very mosaic-y. The orange areas mixing with the pale areas make it look like the top left quadrant of a Roman mosaic of the sun. It is a regular regimented pattern.

I think it looks like that because of how often Blake played with some of the "second most frequently playing" cluster of players (Robertson, Davies, Ritson, Vaughan, Stephens, Paasi, Batchelor, Knowles and Bennison).

The network graph is less spread out than equivalent one for point-scoring moments, with most players being in the central blob. The players that stick out are Wingfield, Walmsley, Royle, Whitby and Burns. Although there are a ring of players that are either coming out of the main blob or being eaten by it (Knowles, Bennison, Batchelor, Vaughan, Paasi, Stephens and Davies)

( Network graph under the cut )

Game 24 of Saint's 2024 season was their Magic Weekend game.

I quite like Wikipedia's description of Magic Weekend - "an annual event organised by the Rugby Football League in which an entire round of Super League matches is played over a weekend at a single stadium to promote the sport of rugby league." (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magic_Weekend)

I've been lucky enough to go twice, both in Newcastle.

The only downside to Magic Weekend is, that in order to sell tickets, Super League tend to have teams play their local rivals. Which means you can end up playing the same team far too often.

And playing Wigan, again, in a year your team are already not doing well, is far, far too often.

When Saints then lose, 20-0, to Wigan, that's the pits - https://www.saintsrlfc.com/2024/08/17/saints-beaten-on-derby-day-at-magic-wknd/

On the other hand the referees let this sort of thing go:
( Picture under the cut )

Understandably, there can be no diagrams for Saints's point-scoring moments in this game, nor are their any updates to their point scoring moments for the season.

There is no pattern to when Saints conceded, except maybe a slight suggestion that they concede more in the last 10 minutes (but so does everyone else).

( Bar chart under the cut )

The "who is present when Saints concede" diagram is so weird that it made me double check that I'd not made some sort of data entry error.

Bar chart of who is on the field when Saints concede. The bar for Waqa Blake is much longer than that of anyone else, up past 100 when the next nearest (Welsby and Lomax) are at around 80.

It makes sense, just, if you consider that he's about the only player who didn't have an extended injury / suspension break.

It does make the "Who is present when Saints concede" matrix look intriguingly different.

( And makes the alt text tricky to write )

The equivalent network graph is shaped like a fox's face.

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As Royle, Walmsley, Wingfield and Burns are the only players sticking out, it tells me that the other players who had previously been in the little "rarely but when they do they play together" sticking out blobs have now been subsumed into the central blob. This is true, as they are now at the edges of the central blob (Paasi, Vaughan and Stephens on the left hand side and Bennison, Knowles and Batchelor on the right).

That change is most interesting, and suggests Saints have had to start leaning on the full squad of players.

Saints's game 23 was an unnecessarily close match that Moses Mbye won for Saints with a drop goal in golden point extra time (https://www.saintsrlfc.com/2024/08/08/saints-down-the-red-devils-in-golden-point/).

The matrix of players playing together when Saints concede for the game isn't particularly informative, other than showing the people interchanging in and out, but it does look pretty.

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Over the season, there are now 178 point scoring moments for Saints, compared to 104 point-scoring moments conceded.

The chart of when Saints score continues to look like a skyline full of skyscrapers.

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Percival still has the most point-scoring moment, because he is the kicker. He is now up to 60 point-scoring moments.

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Waqa Blake is the Saints player present for the most point-scoring moments.

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The matrix diagram of which players are together when Saints score is a lot more diffuse than it used to be.

Matrix diagram of which players play together when Saints score. While there is still a clearly darker area (the players who play together most frequently when Saints score) in the bottom right hand side of the diagram, it is now speckled with lighter colours and not one solid colour. That section of 11 players is not much darker than the next most often together section of 6 players. The diagram becomes paler for the next 7 players then there is the palest section of the last 4 players.

The network diagram still has a clear central blob.

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This Salford team had the third most point-scoring moments against Saints.

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There is no pattern to when Saints concede

( Another bar chart under the cut )

Waqa Blake is present for the most point-concessions.

( Bar chart under the cut )

The matrix chart of players present together when Saints concede has two areas of darker red standing representing combinations often together when Saints concede. The first patch, Blake, Welsby, Clark, Sironen, Dodd, Lomax, Bell, Hurrell, Makinson, Percival, Mbye, Lees, Whitley and Delaney. The second is where those players cross over with Mata'utia. I believe this is because, before his injury, Mata'utia was in the main cluster.

Matrix diagram showing players who play together when Saints concede. The darkest group takes up the bottom right hand of the square (and contains Blake, Welsby, Clark, Sironen, Dodd, Lomax, Bell, Hurrell, Makinson, Percival, Mbye, Lees, Whitley and Delaney). The next paler section contains Walmsley, Wingfield, Burns, Royle, Paasi, Stephens, Vaughan, Robertson, Davies and Ritson, then the top, slightly darker patch, are Matautia, Bennison and Batchelor.

The network graph for point-concessions is less blobby.

( And is underneath the cut )

Subtle change in name to reflect that the 2025 Rugby League Super League season has started.

Game 22 was against Hull FC.

This time Hull actually managed to score against Saints:

( Bar chart under the cut )

I wish Saints had kept a clean sheet, but (shrug).

The good news for Saints is that Morgan Knowles was back from injury in this game, and Jake Burns, got his first ever try for the senior team, then the second in the same game. (A bit of background - https://www.saintsrlfc.com/teams/first-team/jake-burns/ He might be one of the last of the proper, has a non-Saints career to fall back on, players). The most heartwarming part, exactly how happy the Saints Twitter guy was.

The game 22 "who is present together when Saints score" matrix diagram, I'm including it because I think it looks pretty, and it's nicely shows how forwards interchange (paler colours), while the backs stay on (darker colours).

Matrix graph of which Saints players are together when Saints score in game 22. The dark purple patch, of Whitley, Robertson, Ritson, Mbye, Makinson, Dodd, Blake and Davies, who are mostly backs, were together a lot. The forwards, Paasi, Lees, Clark, Bell, Sironen, Knowles, Batchelor, Burns and Stephens, are paler because they are substituted on and off.

For the season to date, Saints have had 172 point-scoring moments and 98 conceded.

22 players have scored for Saints.

( Bar chart under the cut )

The "Saints often score in minutes 50-53" has been reinforced.

( Bar chart under here )

Who is present when Saints score?

( Yet another bar chart )

The present-together-when-Saints-score matrix has an interesting pattern. Whitley's line makes that pattern. This is because he was present for a lot of point-scoring moments early in the season, then was out for a while, and has now been present for several more tries now he's back. So he's been separated from the main "often present when Saints score" group, but has still been present a lot with them.

Matrix of players often together when Saints score, up to game 22. The bottom right corner contains the players most often together when Saints score (Welsby, Blake, Dodd, Hurrell, Percival, Sironen, Bell, Clark, Lomax, Mbye, Makinson, Matautia, Delaney, Lees). Then there is a paler chunk, the darker Whitley line, explained above, and then the palest, least often group who are top-most and lefter-most.

The equivalent network graph looks like this.

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When do Saints concede?

( Bar chart underneath the cut )

Who is present when Saints concede?

( Bar chart under the cut )

The matrix diagram of players together when Saints concede also looks interesting. It basically looks like a tartan with a repeating pattern, but each repeat is slightly paler.

Matrix diagram of players together often when Saints concede. The first, darkest, repeat, is bottom right, and contains, Clark, Dodd, Bell, Sironen, Hurrell, Delaney, Percival, Makinson, Lees and Mbye. The next cluster up and out are Blake, Lomax, Welsby, Whitley, Matautia, Bennison, Batchelor, Knowles. The palest repeat is both top and leftermost and contains Ritson, Davies, Robertson, Paasi, Stephens and Vaughan. There is another section, all pale yellow, above and to the left of them, it contains Walmsley, Burns, Wingfield and Royle.

The concession network graph just looks odd.

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This is one of the games where I know there are errors in the data. At various points Stephens swapped on for players who weren't on the pitch and I'm not sure when Mbye came on. I do not blame the overworked Saints social media fella, but it'd be nice if Super League tried to give me this information.

(I am not entirely joking when I threaten to do this for St. George Illawarra this season because the NRL has proper stats. Lack of time will be the only thing that stops me.)

Game 21 itself was also a disappointment, because Saints lost 46-4 to Leigh. So not only did they beat us twice, they beat us twice in leopard print undercrackers (https://www.saintsrlfc.com/2024/07/26/saints-well-beaten-by-leigh/). The two yellow cards for Saints didn't help.

It turns out the reason the social media team didn't say when Mbye came on was because they were in denial about Welsby going off. Which I really don't blame them for.

Some quick reworking later, there are better figures.

This Leigh team are now the team who have scored the most against Saints in 2024.

Bar chart of point-scoring moments against Saints. Leigh in game 21 have the most with 15.

There continues to be a pattern of Saints scoring in minute 50-53.

( Bar chart behind the cut )

There are 4 minutes where Saints have conceded 4 point-scoring moments, with some evidence that they concede often in the last 10 minutes.

( Bar chart behind the cut )

Because of injury in this match, Welsby is no longer ever present when Saints score. He is still the player most often present when Saints score, but that's because they only scored once in game 21.

( Bar chart underneath the cut )

Because of the injury, Welsby is no longer the player present most often when Saints concede.

( Bar chart behind the cut )

The "who is present together when Saints score" is now four quadrants, with a intermediate group between them. The intermediate group are Whitley, Batchelor and Bennison. Whitley is just back from injury, which might explain it.

The line that interests me is Ritson's, because where it crosses Lomax, Percival, Blake, and Welsby's, it is darker than expected. Not by much, but enough to be seen.

( Matrix chart behind the cut )

The who-is-present-together-when-Saints-concede matrix is fascinating.

$Matrix diagram of who is present together when Saints concede. The reason it is fascinating is that the paler areas have parts that look like fractals or crenelations. I cannot explain them statistically.$

My best guess for why is something about Welsby's injury, combined with the many point-conceding moments in this game.

The network graph equivalent for point-scoring moments shows the central blob and the Stephens, Royle, Ritson and Paasi subgroup.

( Network graph underneath the cut )

The together-when-Saints-concede network graph looks more like the expected starfish, although there's signs of that subgroup in this one too.

In this network graph, as well as the central blob there is sort of a Stephens, Royle, Ritson, Paasi, Vaughan and Stephens subgroup, this time top and turning round the corner to the right. However, in this graph, the subgroup has more connections to the central blob. At the bottom of the blob Wingfield and Walmsley stick out, at the right and left respectively.

I think it's interesting that even with 21 games worth of data, the shapes and patterns are still changing.

Every league has a team like Warrington. Their purpose is to look like they could win the league, if everything lines up for them, and then things suddenly just don't line up for them. And the just don't continues for a long period of time.

In Warrington's case, the "and then something went wrong" has lasted since 1955 (they have won the Cup since then, but never the league). Even their own fans sing a song about it. "It's always our year, it's always our year, same as the next one, it's always our year." and so on.

In 2024, everything was starting to look like they might win. Sam Burgess as coach seemed to be the magic ingredient. It didn't, of course, end with them winning the league but 2025 could be their year.

I try not to torment them too much, because they aren't a bad team, usually, and because I really like Stefan Ratchford as a player (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stefan_Ratchford). Yes, I know, thou shalt not covet thy neighbour's stand-off, but I have wanted him on my team since before his nose was a non-Euclidean nightmare.

Anyway, following Saints's loss to them in the quarter-final of the Challenge Cup (https://fulltimesportsfan.wordpress.com/2024/08/13/saints-ahoy-visualisations-from-game-9-challenge-cup-quarterfinal/), game 20 was Saints and Warrington's first meeting in the league.

And Saints lost.

Lost to a team who had a man red carded in the 20th minute. And another one yellow carded later.

It wasn't going to be Saints's season, was it.

As in the last game (https://fulltimesportsfan.wordpress.com/2025/01/26/saints-ahoy-game-19-and-the-season-to-date/), 4 out of the match day 17 were people who'd made their debuts this season. The season to date visualisations also started to see the effects of Hurrell's injury, as he dropped down the "present for" charts, and this mid-season bundle of Ritson, Royle, Stephens and Paasi really started to form up.

But I get ahead of myself...

The point-scoring and point-conceding matrix diagrams look pleasingly similar with some small differences.

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How does that affect the season-long charts?

20 players have now scored for Saints.

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When do Saints score?

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Jack Welsby is still ever present when Saints score.

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The "who is present when Saints score?" matrix now looks really complicated.

Matrix graph. The darkest area is quite clear - it contains Welsby, Blake, Hurrell, Percival, Sironen, Dodd, Clark, Bell, Lomax, Makinson, Mbye, Matautia, Lees and Delaney. There is variation in the colour with sort of orangier mottling. The drop off from this darkest area is significant, with the rest of the graph being a pale yellow colour mottled with darker flecks.

The Davies, Ritson, Stephens, Paasi and Royle subgroup is definitely starting to form.

( Network graph underneath the cut )

Warrington hold two of the top 3 places in the "who scored against Saints?" bar chart.

( It still was not their year )

When do Saints concede?

( Underneath the cut )

Who is present when Saints concede?

( Note to self, save at a larger size next time )

The "who is present together when Saints concede?" matrix diagram is still made of three distinct thirds.

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The network graph of who is together when Saints concede looks very different, more like a starfish with the central blob having lots of extended tentacles.

Network graph, the central blob is surrounded by, clockwise from top left, Walmsley, Wingfield, Knowles, Mbye, Ritson and Batchelor. There is a second extension, all towards the bottom with more links between each other than that first six. They are working right to left from under Mbye, Davies, Royle, Vaughan, Robertson and Paasi.

Secondary sub-teams, playing together because of injuries to others, are definitely starting to appear.

Saints fans ask for very little. We just want to beat Wigan. Therefore losing to them 16-12 makes us sad.

I mean, I think we did very well given the number of children in our starting line up.

Look at Harry Robertson, literally the poster boy for that line up. (https://www.saintsrlfc.com/teams/first-team/harry-robertson/)

He's 19, making his debut and they throw him in against them!!!

Of that starting 17, there are 4 players who made their debut this season!!!

And you know what really doesn't help when you have a team that's almost a quarter infants (and a couple of players not much post that stage)? When one of your senior players gets himself yellow carded in the first minute. Matty Lees, give yourself a shake!

It being such a low-scoring game means there's no figures for the game. (Don't worry, I am adding some extra analysis at the end to make up for it.)

For the season to date, there may be starting to be a pattern of Saints scoring in minute 50-55.

( Under the cut )

19 players have now scored for Saints at any point this season.

Percival, the kicker, still leads the way.

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Welsby is still ever-present when Saints score, present for all 153 point-scoring moments.

( Bar chart under the cut )

What does the matrix graph look like now?

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The network graph looks weird.

Network graph of which Saints players are present together when Saints score. There is a central blob and two players sticking up and out right (Wingfield up and Walmsley out right). That is not the weird bit. Davies and Stephens sticking out left (Davies) and down left (Stephens) also not weird. Royle, Ritson and Paasi sticking out but almost making their own community between themselves, Stephens and Davies, that is the wierd bit.

I can't quite explain why Royle, Ritson and Paasi look like they're making a sub-community with Davies and Stephens. I know why Royle, Ritson and Paasi, because the few games they have played have been together, but I didn't think that they'd shared that many with Davies (Stephens yes, Davies, not so much).

This is one of the advantages of visualising the data.

The pattern of when Saints concede has reduced.

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An ever-present when Saints score, Welsby has been ever-present when Saints concede.

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The who-is-present-together when Saints concede matrix looks odd. Normally they go, darkest, paler, even paler, palest (from one side to the other). This one goes darkest, paler, palest, paler than paler not as pale as palest. It appears to be an effect of the same sort of sub-community formation seen in the "present together when Saints score" network graph.

Matrix diagram of players who play together when Saints concede. The darkest area of the most often present together is in the bottom right hand corner. There is a darker orange chunk containing Lees, Mbye, Batchelor and Knowles, then another paler orange sliver of Davies and Ritson. Oddly the absolutely palest section of 5 players is next (Paasi, Burns, Vaughan, Stephens and Robertson - or 4 debutants and the injured), then last comes a darker yellow section of Wingfield, Walmsley and Royle.

The equivalent network diagram actually looks more reasonably than the point-scoring equivalent.

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The last time I compared "rank in the list of present when Saints score" vs "rank in the list of when Saints concede" was game 13, when Saints had hit 100 point-scoring moments and point-conceding moments were about half that (https://fulltimesportsfan.wordpress.com/2024/10/31/saints-ahoy-visualisations-from-game-13-and-the-season-to-date/).

In this game, Saints hit 150 point-scoring moments (now 153) and point-conceding moments is still ~ half that (73) so I thought this would be a good time to look at that again.

As expected, the numbers have evened themselves out. Now, the player present for the least point-conceding moments relative to point-scoring moments is Percival at -6, followed by Mbye and Stephens at -4. Percival is a mixture of being taken off at minute 50 early in the season and a couple of cards and Mbye tends not to be the starting hooker in the big games (the ones Saints are more likely to concede more in).

Stephens is the one who intrigues me because he's a forward who has been given his debut this season, so those are happy numbers. (L will tell you I was excessively fond of Stephens even before this stat.)

Looking at it the other way (players present relatively more often when Saints concede than when they score) [and ignoring Robertson who has only one game because really], the only one with numbers >2 (which I am calling insignificant) are Delaney and Ritson and neither of those are explicable.

I'll keep an eye out on this stat going forward.

No diagrams for the game itself because it finished 6-8 to Castleford so the diagrams contain very little information. A match report can be found here - https://www.saintsrlfc.com/2024/07/05/saints-suffer-narrow-loss-to-the-tigers/ It appears to have been a bit of an arm wrestle.

L will tell you that I tend towards the melodramatic when Saints lose to Castleford. I blow it out of all proportion. This is not because Castleford are not a good team. It's more that losing to them is almost always a sign of a Saints season that will not end well. (Seriously tempted to do a stats test on that to prove it's not just fan-madness)

Good things to take from this match:
Two new players got blooded in. The new players (and semi-new players) do give me hope for the future.
Sam Royle, first ever try for Saints - yay!

Things I am going to use to try to feel better:
It was all going so well until minute 50. It can go better again.

On to the season so far:

There is still no pattern to when Saints score.

( Under the cut )

The pattern that was forming for when Saints conceded seems to have broken.

( Under the cut )

Who scores for Saints?

( Another )

Who scores against Saints?

Bar chart of who scores against Saints. Not all the matches are present because Saints have held two teams to nil.

Saints have had 149 point-scoring moments and conceded 67, so the update on who is unexpectedly high on either "present when scoring" or "present when conceding" charts will have to wait until the next game.

Jack Welsby is still the only ever present on both charts.

First, who is present when Saints score?

( Bar chart of who is present when Saints score below the cut )

Who is present when Saints concede?

( Bar chart of who is present when Saints concede below the cut )

What has game 18 done to the matrix and network graphs? Interesting things.

The 'who are present together when Saints score' matrix now looks like this.

( Beneath the cut )

The darkest 14 aren't really what interests me. It's the fact that the paler half is now split into three thirds, with the Whitley, Batchelor and Bennison cluster, then the Davies, Walmsley, Knowles and Wingfield cluster (or the 'oh, how many of our props have been injured?!!!' cluster), then the palest section of Royle, Paasi, Ritson and Stephens.

The network graph looks spectacularly odd (which is why it's not going behind a cut).

Network graph. There is a central blob. Knowles and Wingfield are on the edges of the blob. Sticking out from the blob, anticlockwise from centre right, are Stephens, Paasi, Royle, Davies (although he is closer to the central blob) and Walmsley. There are lines joining Paasi, Royle, Davies, Walmsley, Knowles and Wingfield, indicating that when they are present when Saints score, they are present with each other.

It's the cross points between the arms that are sticking out of the central blob that I don't understand. I presume it means that while Paasi, Royle, Davies, Walmsley, Knowles and Wingfield aren't often with the others when Saints score, when they are present, they are often with each other, with Wingfield and Knowles being closer to the central blob indicating that they are present for more of Saints's scoring moments.

The "who is present when Saints concede" matrix is also interesting, divided as it is almost in four along each edge.

( Behind the cut )

The equivalent network graph looks more like you would expect.

( Therefore it is going behind a cut )

I can at least explain why Walmsley, Wingfield and Davies are sticking out, they have been injured. But Ritson is inexplicable. Or rather, I know it's because he's not been playing, it's the why of that that I don't understand.

Game 17 was another loss to Salford. Let us never speak of it again.

More sensibly, both times Salford played Saints this season are high up on the "who scores against Saints?" chart.

Bar chart of which teams scored against Saints. Salford are 3rd and 4th in the chart at the end of game 17.

Mostly concerned about Sam Royle going off concussed.

Looking at the year to date:

Percival's try and the conversions help extend his lead at the top of the "Who scores for Saints?" chart:

( Under the cut )

There is still no real pattern to when Saints score.

( Under the cut )

Welsby is still ever present.

( Under the cut )

Unlike the matrix for when Saints concede, the "who is together when Saints score" matrix looks like the way I'd expect, with one corner (the bottom right) darker than the others, then the square getting paler as you move up or left.

Matrix of which Saints players are on the pitch together when Saints score. The darkest points at the centre are the most frequently present players.

The network graph equivalent just looks weird.

( Under the cut )

When do Saints concede?

( Under the cut )

There are two lumps one from minute 9-11, and the other, less high but longer, from minute 71-80.

Saints have conceded 65 point-scoring moments up to the end of game 17, and 9 of them (almost 14%) have come in minutes 9-11. 16 (almost 25%) have come in minutes 71-80.

Who is present when Saints concede?

( Bar chart under the cut )

The "which players are together most often when Saints concede" image is intriguing, and looks different to the scoring one. Rather than there being a darker area, then pale, it goes dark, paler, darkest, palest.

Matrix of which players are together most often when Saints concede. It is split into four 4 clear areas. The bottom right 7 players are the second darkest group, then there is a paler area of 4 players (Lees, Mbye, Batchelor and Knowles) followed by the darkest area (another 7 players) then the palest patch (another 6 players).

Lees, Mbye, Batchelor and Knowles being an intermediate colour makes sense because they're props and other forwards who are rotated on and off (not to mention the various cards). I think the mixing of the patches rather than the clear separation seen in the "present when point-scoring" matrix is because Percival is no longer hauled off at minute 50.

On the other hand, the "present when Saints concede" network graph looks more reasonable than the scoring one.

( Below the cut )

Saints beat London Broncos 52 - 6, with Percival converting 8/9 tries - https://www.saintsrlfc.com/matches/2024/first-team/london-broncos-v-saints-2024-06-16/

On the other hand, Makinson limped off within the first 10 minutes with a leg injury. As a team, we're not so good without him and he's part of the spine of our team.

( Who scored for Saints in game 16 )

It ended up being the "who scored" chart that made me notice that 1) I'd missed Percival's conversion of his own try and then the "present when conceded in game 16" that made me notice I'd accidentally duplicated Bell after he'd gone off for Sam Royle and then come back on to replace Davies when he went off for his HIA (head injury assessment).

I also learnt that Daryl Clark has earned his own song, which the Saints sing to "Dancing in the Dark". Given he is replacing one of the players generally regarded as one of our greatest ever (https://www.loverugbyleague.com/post/james-roby-stays-with-st-helens-as-retired-legend-details-his-new-wide-ranging-role), I think he's doing well.

London Broncos did better the second time they played Saints in 2024 (https://fulltimesportsfan.wordpress.com/2024/02/21/saints-ahoy-rugby-league-data-visualisation-2024/), actually scoring this time, but in the last 2 minutes.

Bar chart showing which teams scored against St Helens. Hull KR have scored the most, but there are several teams that did not score any points and they are not on the chart.

There is still no pattern to when Saints score up to the end of game 16.

( When Saints score )

There is a pattern to when they concede, although this time they avoided conceding in minutes 9-11.

( When Saints concede )

So we concede either just after the first 10 or in the last 10 minutes.

Who is present when Saints score?

( Under the cut )

The "Who is present when Saints score" matrix looks like this.

( Under the cut )

I like that the darker area does cover 17 players who would make a decent match day squad. They are Welsby, Hurrell, Blake, Whitley, Batchelor, Bennison, Dodd, Percival, Lomax, Bell, Clark, Sironen, Mbye, Mata'utia, Lees and Delaney.

The network diagram looks like this:
( Under the cut )

It pleases me that the 17 players are also those in the centre of the network diagram. Not sure why only 4 of the less frequently present players are in the diagram (Stephens, Davies, Wingfield and Walmsley) but they are the most frequently present of the infrequents so I presume it's that.

How about players present when Saints concede?

( Bar chart under here )

Welsby is top of this one too, because he really is ever present. The players that follow him are in a different order. I suspect that either concede or scored will hit another big number shortly so the orders can be compared.

The steeper drop off in the "concession moments present for" diagram is also reflected in the matrix diagram.

( Under here )

There are only 16 players in the darkest area. They are Welsby, Dodd, Mata'utia, Blake, Hurrell, Lomax, Delaney, Makinson, Clark, Bell, Bennison, Sironen, Whitley, Percival, Batchelor and Knowles.

I think Lees misses out because he was off the pitch because of yellow cards for several point-concessions.

The network graph is less tightly packed.

This network graph has six players in the centre, Matautia, Blake, Dodd, Hurrell, Clark, Welsby, then 12 players around them in a sort of shield shape. Sticking out are Ritson, at the top, Wingfield, bottom right, Walmsley, bottom left.

It's those 16 again, because they are closely related, and this time it's Ritson, Wingfield and Walmsley that are present from the pale group.

In game 15, Saints beat Catalan Dragons, and there was the expected yellow card.

https://www.saintsrlfc.com/2024/05/31/saints-down-the-dragons-at-the-totally-wicked-stadium/

Because there always is at least one card. I'm not sure why Saints vs Dragons always ends up violent (I have theories, they're all rude and start with calling them Wigan Sud) but they always do.

This time it was one of theirs that got the yellow card, although Saints were already leading by then.

The other big news was that this was the return of Agnatius Paasi to the team. And we like having him, for he is large and good. Saints were very careful with him, only giving him 20 minutes.

After game 15, there is still no pattern to when Saints score:
( Bar chart beneath the cut )

Percival still leads the point-scorers, as he should as the kicker (also 4/4 tries converted in game 15)
( Bar chart under the cut )

Welsby is still ever-present when Saints score.
( Another bar chart )

This is borne out by the matrix graph of players who play together when Saints score. For the darker section (play together more often when Saints score), we've not got a solid 17 players:

Matrix diagram. Darker colours means players play together more often when Saints score. There is now a clear demarcation between the plays who do not play together often when Saints score, and the ones that do. The darker section is now 17 players wide, which is the same as the number in a matchday squad.

The 17 are, in figure not necessarily positional order, Welsby, Blake, Hurrell, Lomax, Dodd, Percival, Makinson, Batchelor, Bennison, Mbye, Clark, Sironen, Bell, Whitley, Mata'utia, Lees and Delaney.

I will return to their being 17 players in the "frequently together" section when we get to the "matrix diagram for when Saints concede".

The network graph is unclear.

( Network graph under here )

Although there have been 15 games, there are only 13 teams on the "Who has scored against Saints?" bar chart because 2 teams were nil-ed.

If we look at when Saints concede, the pattern previously identified (https://fulltimesportsfan.wordpress.com/2024/11/16/saints-ahoy-game-14-and-the-season-to-date/), of Saints conceding in minute 9-11 gets even stronger.

Bar chart showing when Saints concede. The highest bar is 5 point-conceding moments at minute 11, the next highest is 4 in minute 71.

Of the 57 times Saints have conceded, 9 have come in minute 9-11, almost 16 percent, in those 3 minutes.

It also looks like there might be a weakness in the last 10 minutes too, but that's probably exhaustion and everyone conceding more then.

L has asked me to come up with a "why then?" theory. Best I have is it tiredness when it's the opponent's third set and that might mean more likely to concede 6-agains which might lead to scores. But I have no data to back this up. (NRL.com style data, my kingdom for NRL.com style data)

Welsby is also ever present when Saints concede.
( Bar chart )

Next we have the matrix graph of players who play together more often when Saints concede.

Matrix graph of players together frequently when Saints concede. The paler, less often together players are in the top left third, while the others fill out the bottom right.

This time, the darker group of players who play together more often is only 16 players. I think this is because often, when Saints concede, it is because someone has been carded and is either in the sin bin or off entirely.

The 16 are (again in figure not position order), Welsby, Lomax, Hurrell, Dodd, Mata'utia, Blake, Makinson, Delaney, Clark, Bell, Bennison, Sironen, Whitley, Percival, Batchelor, Knowles.

I think Lees not being in here is because of that.

The network graph is also less clustered for the concessions, possibly because there are fewer of them.
( Beneath the cut )

For a reasonable summary, if you ignore the entire focus being on Leeds when they lost, with not even an interview with Wellens at the end, please see here - https://www.bbc.com/sport/rugby-league/articles/c877le40j6eo

My notes have me be-moaning and be-wailing Batchelor injured and a decidedly probable injury to Johnny Lomax because nothing else is going to make him come off the pitch in the 35th minute and not come back at any point afterwards. Welsby is now the only ever-present for every St. Helens point-scoring moment.

It also featured Tommy Makinson's 200th try for Saints, appropriately a Tommy Mak special (second try in this is the type of thing I mean - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nob6v8W8VB0).

In terms of the data, it now looks like this.

( Who scored for Saints in game 14? )

Lomax is unexpectedly pale.

Matrix graph. The line for Lomax is the palest because he went off so early.

He's not even on the network graph for the game!

Network graph of players present for game 14. The 13 players are Sironen, Bell, Welsby, Hurrell, Dodd, Makinson, Blake, Delaney, Percival, Matautia, Mbye, Clark and Lees.

Now, let's look at the season to date:

Who scores for Saints?

( Under the cut )

Percival, who also kicks conversions, has the most, followed by Lomax and Welsby. Knowles and Batchelor have the least, but they have been injured. And their job is to run into people so other people can score.

There is still no pattern to when Saints score
( Under here )

Who is present when Saints score?
( Under here )

Because of Lomax coming off in minute 35 of game 14, Welsby is the only ever present. Followed by Blake and Lomax. That's how many point-scoring moments came against Leeds.

The three players present for the least number of point-scoring moments are Ritson, Davies and Stephens. Davies has been injured, Stephens is new and no-one knows why they haven't been playing Ritson.

Matrix diagram of the season to date. The top left section is the palest, the central section is the darkest, the players who play together most often when Saints score, is in the middle section, and then the intermediate ones are in the bottom right.

The network graph looks like this:

Network graph. While the rest of the players are clustered in the centre, the outlying players, Stephens, Davies, Walmsley, Wingfield and Knowles have either been injured or, in the case of Stephens, are the replacement for an injured player.

The shape is interesting, because it's now 17 players in the middle, the same as a match day squad. The players are Mata'utia, Sironen, Bell, Dodd, Makinson, Hurrell, Percival, Mbye, Blake, Welsby, Bennison, Clark, Batchelor, Delaney, Lomax, Whitley and Lees. Around the outside are Stephens, Davies, Walmsley, Wingfield and Knowles have either been injured or, in the case of Stephens, are the replacement for an injured player.

Who scores against Saints?

( Bar chart underneath the cut )

The one set of data that is starting to show a pattern is the "when do Saints concede?" graph:

Bar chart of when opponents score against Saints. Two minutes have 4 point-concession moments, minute 11 and minute 71.

Of the 53 times Saints have conceded, 8 have come in minute 9-11, a full 15 percent, in those 3 minutes. That's definitely a pattern.

Who is present when Saints concede?
( Bar chart )

Again, it's similar to the who is present when Saints score bar chart but the players that are higher in this one (Dodd is noticeable) is interesting.

The matrix for "Who is present when Saints concede?" is also similar to the "Present when Saints score" matrix diagram.

( Below the cut )

There are only 16 players in the centre of the "players present together most often when Saints concede".

( Beneath the cut )

Game 13 was the game when Saints's other problem this season really started to manifest. The wheel of fortune has turned and where Saints were lucky in previous years, this year, Saints were carded at every available opportunity. [This section has been heavily amended by the legal department]

This time, it was a red card for Tommy Makinson, leaving Saints with 12 men for 67 minutes.

Now against this Castleford team, who themselves had a player sent off in the second half, it didn't really matter, but that sort of thing really tots up over the season.

As does missing kicks, with only 8/12 tries converted.

Despite the missed kicks, Percival still had the most point scoring moments.

( Who scored for Saints in Game 13 )

Especially as he was one of the try scorers.

Due to the injury problems, this game marked Noah Stephens's debut. He appears thoroughly marvellous.

Less marvellous was that Wingfield came back from an injury break only to get injured again.

This game brought up Saints's 100th point-scoring moment of the season. By the end, they were up to 103.

When do Saints score?

( Below the cut )

Still no pattern forming, but minute 52 and 79 both have 4 point scoring moments.

Who scores for them?

( Bar chart below the cut )

17 different players have already scored for Saints in 2024, but it's not surprising that Percival, our main kicker has the most with 31.

Blake on 7 has more than I expected him to.

Welsby and Lomax remain ever-presents for when Saints score, which is amazing. (A few Rugby League commentators have been sniffy about Welsby's season this year. I may bite them.)

Bar chart showing point-scoring moments players have been present for. Lomax and Welsby have been present for all of them. Next come Blake and Hurrell.

I really didn't expect Blake and Hurrell to be so high up (3rd and 4th respectively).

The who plays together when Saints score matrix diagram looks like this: ( Below the cut )

The pale space at the top is full of injured players (and have now double checked and Knowles was out with a groin injury) or debutants. Or is Tee Ritson.

That's recapitulated by the network graph ( below the cut )

Saints have now conceded 50 point-scoring moments over the season.

There is no pattern to when they concede:
( Below the cut )

Who is present when Saint's concede?
( Bar chart below the cut )

Lomax and Welsby at the top of that isn't a surprise because they've been ever present when Saints scored too.

With Saints having had >100 point-scoring moments and conceding 50, it seemed like a good time to compare where the players sit in the "present for scoring/conceding" rankings".

Mata'utia is the player present, relatively, for the most concessions versus scores, but he, along with Sironen, Bell, Mbye and Clark have been affected by the Saints twitter not always catching all the substitutions.

Ritson is next highest in that, but that's a statistical quirk because he's not played many minutes.

Then comes Clark. I think that's because he's the starting hooker and will always play more minutes in the tougher matches.

On the other side, the player present, relatively, for the most scores versus concessions is Percival, but I think that's an artefact of the pull him off at minute 50 thing.

Then comes Sironen, who I've always said does the hard yards quietly and well, then Whitley and Lees. But Lees I know is because he's been off the pitch due to his own cards!

Which players are present together when Saints concede?

( Matrix beneath the cut )

Because fewer players have been on the pitch when Saints concede than when they scored, there is less variation in colour than the scoring matrix.

The network graph is also more spread out for concessions, ( below the cut )

The interesting thing is that Mbye is one of the outliers on this view, which I'm presuming is because he players fewer minutes than Clark. Lees is because of the cards.

Game 12 was Saints vs Hull KR, at round about the point in the season where:
1) It became obvious that this season, Hull KR are good.
2) Saints, not have a good year
3) The referees have decided to card Saints players for breathing this year (mild exaggeration, but several things Saints players have been carded for, players from other teams have not)

Saints lost, and had a player sin-binned (Matty Lees, about which, more later).

Match report here - https://www.saintsrlfc.com/matches/2024/first-team/hull-kr-v-saints-2024-05-04/?swcfpc=1 In short, woe!

Also woe! Makinson is leaving at the end of the year (https://x.com/Saints1890/status/1792110445903642738). Now, we have had a good run from him, and I begrudge no one who puts their body on the line the chance of a ginormous lower tax-rate pay off from Catalan Dragons. On the other hand, I don't want to lose him!!!!

For Game 12:

The final score was 40-20 to Hull KR. Only 2 out of Saints's four tries were converted, as seen in the diagram below.

Bar chart of who scored for Saints in game 12. Welsby and Blake scored one try each, Hurrell two tries. Percival who was on kicking duties only scored two sets of points, meaning two tries were unconverted.

Adding an extra 4 points wouldn't have won Saints the game, but it wouldn't have hurt.

12 of 13 players are on the diagram for playing together when Saints conceded in game 12.

Network graph of which players play together when Saints conceded in game 12. Matty Lees is not present.

Matty Lees is the starting player who is not present, but that's more because he had 10 minutes in the sin bin for a yellow card, which undoubtedly didn't help the defence.

That leads us to the diagrams for the season to date:

In game 12, Hull KR had the most point-scoring moments of any team Saints have played so far:

Bar chart of which teams had the most point-scoring moments against Saints. Hull KR had the most with 13. Diagram does not include the teams that scored 0 against Saints.

Who scores for Saints?:

Bar chart showing who has had the most point-scoring moments for Saints. Percival has had the most. 6 players (Sironen, Mbye, Matautia, Knowles, Bell and Batchelor) have had one.

As expected, Percival who does the kicking (when he's on the pitch) has still had the most point-scoring moments.

When do Saints score?:

Bar chart of when Saints score coloured in by scorer. There is a three point-high purple line at minute 52, which is Percival converting the tries scored in minute 51.

Game 12 was Tee Ritson's first game (not sure if injured or out of favour), which is why he is at the bottom of the "number of point-scoring moments Saints players are present for, up to game 12" bar chart.

Bar chart of which players are present when Saints score. Lomax and Welsby are still ever present for all 83 of Saints points. They are followed by Whitley. Tee Ritson is present for the least, less than Walmsley and Davies who have both been injured.

The matrix of players present when Saints score looks like this:

Matrix is now a shifted cross, like the Norwegian flag. The darkest colours, for present together most often, is in the top left hand corner, then there is a pale cross for the players rarely present, then the medium often present players in various shades of orange.

Clark, Dodd and Sironen are present more often than expected alongside Welsby and Lomax when Saints score.

The network graph also reflects the players who have been injured, with Walmsley and Davies sticking out at the edge of the figure.

Network graph. Walmsley is sticking out at the top of the diagram, with Davies sticking out top right ish. Wingfield is also sticking out on the left, but has been injured so long that I suspect he may fall off the diagram soon.

Interestingly, there's starting to be a pattern to when Saints concede, with minute 71 and 11 standing out.

Coloured bar chart of when Saints concede, coloured in by who scored against them. Minute 71 stands out because teams have scored 4 times against Saints then. Minute 11 is the next highest with 3 different teams scoring against Saints then.

Because they're ever presents, Lomax and Welsby are both at the top of the "how many point-conceding moments have Saints players been present for" bar chart.

Bar chart showing who is present when Saints concede. Welsby and Lomax have been present for all 49 point-conceding moments, followed by Dodd on 43. Least present are Ritson, Lees and Wingfield. Ritson and Wingfield have not been playing, and Lees is a mixture of minutes not-played due to injury and being carded.

Ritson and Wingfield haven't been playing, and Lees is a mixture of minutes not-played due to injury and being carded.

The who present together when Saints concede is a different shape to the present-together-when-scoring equivalents, with the together least often group in the top left corner, then the most often together group in the middle (although that's been shifted up and to the left), then the intermediate ones taking up half the diagram.

Matrix diagram of who is together most often when Saints concede. The palest together least often group are in the top left corner, then the most often together darkest group in the middle (although it has been shifted up and to the left), then the intermediate ones taking up half the diagram.

The present together when Saints concede diagram is also developing.

This network graph looks like a 5 pointed star, with the points (players who are present less) being Wingfield, Mbye, Lees, Ritson and Walmsley.

Saints are a frustrating team - game 9 - lose to Warrington, game 10 - annihilate Hull FC, game 11 - narrowly squeak past Huddersfield with a last minute drop goal (thank you so much Johnny Lomax).

Match report here - https://www.saintsrlfc.com/matches/2024/first-team/saints-v-huddersfield-giants-2024-04-25/?swcfpc=1

Because the game was so low-scoring (13-12), I've got no figures for the game. But there are some interesting changes to the rolling diagrams.

Who scores for Saints?

( Bar chart under here )

When do Saints score, coloured by scorer?

( Colourful bar chart under here )

There's a distinct pattern of Saints scoring in the last 10 minutes before half-time, but all the minutes where Saints have had 3 point-scoring moments are in the second half.

Who is present when Saints score?

( Bar chart under here )

Welsby and Lomax have been present for all point-scoring moments, followed by Whitley and Makinson. The least present are Wingfield (who has been injured), Walmsley (also injured) and Davies (guess what). This was when Saints 2024 injury curse really started to become obvious.

The matrix has changed significantly. Last time, the dark purple "most often together when Saints score" was in the bottom right hand corner, now it's in the top left hand corner.

The dark purple are for those who are most often together when Saints score is in the top left hand corner. The next darkest area is the top right. The pale section is in the middle.

Interestingly, the next darkest area is the top right and the pale section is in the middle.

Davies is unexpectedly pale ... because he hasn't played often due to injury.

That's also why he sticks out of the network graph.

( Network graph underneath the cut )

Walmsley's been injured, I'm presuming Knowles also.

Saints also concede mostly in the second half.

Bar chart, most of the minutes where Saints have conceded more than 1 point scoring moments are in the second half, although 3 point-scoring moments have occurred in minute 11.

I do not approve of so many point scoring moments happening against Saints in minute 11.

Who is present when Saints concede?

( Bar chart under here )

Bennison continues to be present for more concessions than scores. Percival is present for few because of the "wrap him up in cotton wool at minute 50" scheme.

The concession matrix is still in four sections, not nine like the scoring one, but they are now rectangles not squares. The darkest and largest section runs 11 players, from Welsby to Matautia. The smaller one runs for 9 players, from Wingfield to Bell.

The concession matrix is still in four sections, not nine like the scoring one, but they're now rectangles not squares. The darkest and largest section runs 11 players, from Welsby to Mata'utia. The smaller one runs for 9 players, from Wingfield to Bell.

The concession network diagram is bizarre.

Network diagram; there is a central core, with an outer halo of Wingfield, Percival, Mbye, Lees, Batchelor and Walmsley, with Bell and Delaney linking the two parts.

There's now a central core, with an outer halo of Wingfield, Percival, Mbye, Lees, Batchelor and Walmsley, with Bell and Delaney linking the two parts.

This is why Saints are so frustrating, they can lose to Warrington (https://fulltimesportsfan.wordpress.com/2024/08/13/saints-ahoy-visualisations-from-game-9-challenge-cup-quarterfinal/) then a week later they nil Hull FC. Now, admittedly, Hull FC have been wretched this year (that noise you can hear is L bemoaning that Danny Houghton is too good for them), but still.

There were enough point-scoring moments that there are game-specific diagrams that are worth sharing.

( Players who scored for Saints in game 10 )

10 out of the 17 man squad scored points, with Percival and Bennison on kicking duties and Waqa Blake scoring two tries.

( Game 10 matrix )

It's even clearer on the network graph.

( Network graph )

The players who stick out are the ones who were subbed at any point.

That Saints are still wrapping Percival up in cotton wool at minute 50, a pattern they've maintained through out.

( Line chart showing when players play )

I'm presuming they're trying to make sure he stays in one piece as he's signed up till 2026 - https://www.loverugbyleague.com/post/st-helens-stalwart-mark-percival-opens-up-on-why-hes-committed-his-long-term-future-to-club

There is starting to be a shape to when Saints score.

Bar chart - minute 51 and 52 have had 3 point-scoring moments, as have minutes 60 and 70. I also find the cluster of minutes between 34-40 that have 2 point-scoring moments interesting.

While it's nice to see consistent storing at minutes 51, 52, 60 and 70, I am also very happy with the cluster between minutes 34-40 where Saints have already had two point-scoring moments.

( Same graph but coloured in by scorer )

That's Purple for Percival, dominating the graph even if he does only play 50 out of 80 minutes.

Things have happened to the season-long matrix graph, I think because there were many point-scoring moments but several of the more fringe players were playing.

Because the matrix diagram is mirrored along the top-left to bottom right diagonal axis, it looks like the figure is now nine equally sized squares, each 7 by 7 smaller squares big. The bottom right square contains the most dark colours indicating the players who play together most often when Saints score.

Welsby, Lomax and Whitley are still the darkest purple because they're still together most often.

Hurrell, Percival, Clark and Knowles play together less often than you'd expect.
Same for Blake, Mata'utia and Knowles.
Makinson and Knowles
and
Whitley and Knowles

I think the Knowles thing is because he's been injured but when he's fit he plays lots of minutes.

Sironen plays more often than you'd expect with Welsby and Lomax
Clark plays more often than you'd expect with Sironen and Dodd.

Mbye plays more often than you'd expect with Welsby, Lomax, Whitley, Hurrell and Bennison, but I think that's all from this game because he played all of it instead of Daryl Clark and there were so many point-scoring moments (19 out of a total of 71 for the season).

As the season developed, I was a little disappointed in how the matrix didn't seem to develop into an interesting pattern, but it really has developed after this.

The network graph has also developed with the lines in the centre becoming really thick.

( Network graph )

The network diagram has become a large central blob with players hanging off if they play less often. I know Wingfield, Knowles and Walmsley have been injured, I think Davies was too, and Mbye is the spare hooker after Darryl Clark.

Because I ended up a bit behind, I knew that adding the Challenge Cup to the visualisations wouldn't make a huge difference, because Saints only played two games, and lost to Warrington in the quarterfinal.

Losing to Warrington in the Challenge Cup is less humiliating than losing to them in the league, but that doesn't make it okay.

(Match reports here (https://www.saintsrlfc.com/2024/04/14/saints-beaten-in-challenge-cup-quarter-finals/) or here (https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2024/apr/14/warringtons-second-half-onslaught-knocks-st-helens-out-of-challenge-cup). Possibly L needs to be nicer about George Williams.)

Saints conceded enough that there was actually a network graph for players present when they concede.

Dodd, Matautia and Makinson are in the middle, with (clockwise from 12) Whitley, Batchelor, Hurrell, Blake, Delaney, Lomax, Welsby, Walmsley and Bennison.

Which suggests only bad things about the number of times Warrington scored.

( Who scores for Saints? )

( Who is present when Saints score? )

Whitley has now missed one point-scoring moment but he's still in the deepest purple section of the who plays together when Saints score matrix.

( Matrix of who is present together when Saints score )

After the Whitley, Lomax and Welsby group, the next most commonly together are Dodd, Makinson and Clark in red.

The ones that are less frequently together than you might expect are
Sironen and Whitley
Bennison, Delaney and Walmsley (Bennison is together with Welsby and Lomax more often than expected)
Clark is together less often than expected with Bell, Wingfield and Percival.
Whitley, Delaney and Batchelor
Hurrell and Clark (although Hurrell's together with Delaney more than you might expect)
Blake and Mata'utia (Blake is together more than you'd expect with Bell)

Mata'utia is where the figure really splits between the frequently play together and less so. I think Percival is in that group because of his suspension.

The "who is present when Saints score" network graph now looks spectacularly weird.

( It now looks it is making its own frame )

Lomax, Welsby and Makinson are the central core. The surrounding players are Clark, Dodd, Mata'utia, Hurrell, Blake, Bennison, Whitley and Sironen.

Percival forms the link between that central group and the outer group (again I think that's because of his suspension) who are, clockwise from Percival, Walmsley, Lees, Batchelor, Mbye, Wingfield, Bell, Delaney and Knowles.

In the Challenge Cup quarterfinal, Warrington had the most point-scoring moments of any team so far.

( Bar chart of point-scoring moments against Saints )

As to when Saints concede there is starting to be a pattern of conceding the last 20 minutes of the game.

( Coloured bar chart under here )

I'm presuming this is as the team gets tired out.

Who is present when Saints concede?

( Bar chart under here )

Combining the info from the last graph and this, I think Percival is so low down because when he plays, Saints tend to take him off around minute 50, so before the high concession time begins.

The matrix diagram shows that Whitley is present for fewer point-conceding moments than you'd expect.

The central purple of the most frequently together has Welsby, Lomax, Makinson, Bennison and Dodd, Whitley is within the central portion but a paler red.

There are now 17 players in the network graph.

( Network graph )

I think Wingfield is sticking out up there because he's been out injured so long.

(Sorry for the break, RL happened with a vengeance)

So, the most important thing about Easter weekend was that the forces of Good (Saints) beat the forces of Evil (Wigan) in the Good Friday game, somewhat against the run of form.

In the sort of derby where it was 2-0 at half time, 3 people went off for Head Injury Assessments and there was somehow only 1 yellow card

https://www.saintsrlfc.com/2024/03/29/saints-defeat-wigan-on-good-friday/

https://twitter.com/SuperLeague/status/1773756078875959601 - Tommy, Tommy Mak

Those are the important rugby points ;)

( On to the visualisations: )

~~~~

Given the sad news - Rugby league legend Burrow dies aged 41 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-league/articles/c2qqwvwzp5zo) - if you like these posts and have a few quid to spare, there's a couple of funds that could do with donations:

Motor Neurone Disease Association - https://www.justgiving.com/campaign/robburrow
Rob Burrow fund - https://www.gofundme.com/f/leeds-players-association-supporting-rob-burrow
Leeds Hospital Charity - https://www.leedshospitalscharity.org.uk/donate/mnd-centre-appeal