redfiona99

Delayed, because I had notes, but forgot to post them.

First, a complaint. I have no idea who US TV have doing the interviews, but I think Mercedes nailing the new regulations has more to do with Antonelli's results than any mindset change from Kimi from last year to this.

I would also like to have a word with whichever arranger stuffed up the poor lady singing the anthem. There is no key change there, sir.

On to the race itself:

Ferrari, how dare you have the worst engine. There are traditions! Ours is strong engines. Occasionally exploding engines, but strong, powerful engines.

Ferrari tried clever things with strategy. This worries me more than when Red Bull do it.

If Russell didn't have bad luck, he'd have no luck.

Did Red Bull not tell Hadjar that he is race driver number 2? (I believe this is the usual time for the traditional song from Muppets: Most Wanted - I'm Number One and You're Number 2)

I would like to thank Leclerc for bringing some racing! Normally COTA brings much more entertainment than this race did. (Also, yes BBC radio, the Ferrari fans are numerous enough to be heard :) )

Sorry for the delay on posting the equivalent diagram for the Women's Rugby League World Cup 2026.

( Two network diagrams under the cut )

The interesting thing is how much less symmetrical the women's semi-final diagram is. There's a definite New Zealand, Samoa and Australia triangle with Fiji sticking out. This does not bode well for the Fijian women's team, but on this blog, hope springs eternal.

New Zealand are the national team closest to the centre, with Brisbane Broncos being the club team closest.

There are 6 clusters in the community view, the 4 national teams, then one cluster that includes Cronulla Sutherland Sharks and West Tigers which seems to exist because they link multiple national teams, then the St George Illawarra cluster, because St George Illawarra players link Samoa and Fiji, but only Samoa and Fiji.

( Under the cut )

We'll ignore that I've somehow forgotten to write up my US Grand Prix notes when I swore I had, and that I'm that far behind in this series that I accidentally did the maths for the Azerbaijan Grand Prix before doing this one.

I will catch up, eventually.

The Madrid Grand Prix itself:
Like the race itself, nothing spectacular in the scrutineering data.

The χ² for the race is 1.32, so none of the differences are statistically significant.

( Bar chart under the cut )

The bottom 3 cars (Perez, Stroll and Sainz) are 3 out of the 4 cars that retired, which makes sense.

This is the first time that Antonelli (car 12) has been that high up.

The season up until the Madrid Grand Prix:

The continuing increase in the χ² for the season-long scrutineering can best be seen in the figure with the dotted lines for significance.

χ² is now 4.58 (compared to a threshold for significance of 33.92).



It really is the cars at the bottom of the pile that are pulling the numbers up, because their absolute values are so much larger than the over-scrutinized.

Game 2 itself:

The game highlights one of the problems England face. They can beat the French, and beat them handily (Match report here), but against the stronger teams, they just don't seem to gel. Like in 2023, yes, they beat a touring Tonga team (who were without several of their players), but it wasn't anything like convincing, and yes, that was under a different coach but I don't blame Wane for it.

There needs to be more regular international rugby league to allow England to get any better (also Lebanon, France, Ireland, Scotland etc).

McDermott appears to have come around on the topic of Jez Litten, but not quite sure why you'd suddenly swap Ashton for Eckersley after you'd trusted Eckersley against Tonga.

Data visualisation:

For the data visualisation, I've only done the cumulative charts. This is partly because half the game 2 charts would have been blank because France didn't score, and because the thrust of the project is the developments game to game.

When do England score?

( Under the Cut )

Even against France, it took England 22 minutes to score. Obviously, they won the game handily, and you have to wear all oppositions down but it does suggest a certain lack of oomph.

Who scores for England?



Savala being the player who has the most point-scoring moments makes sense, because he's the kicker. Dom Young being in second place shows that giving him the ball is a good idea. Let Dom Young do the thing he's best at.

The France game really skews the "which players are on the pitch when England score?" line chart over time, but you can see which players England use as impact subs.

( Line chart under the cut )

Which players are on the pitch the most when England score?

( Under the cut )

Pearce-Paul, Savala, Smith, Young and Brimson are obviously McDermott's chosen core, with Ashton having taken over from Eckersley on the wing. Not sure why he didn't play Havard against France, but England do have sufficient forwards that it's not that weird.

The who plays together when England score matrix graph also shows this.



Because there were a number of changes in the squad between the two games, and because there were far more point-scoring moments in the game against France, the matrix has developed an interesting shape.

Eckersley, O'Neill and Havard are consigned to the pale, not-often-on-the-pitch-together-when-England-score section.

There's a shade of darker yellows to mid orange, these are the players that played more of a role in one game or the other (skewed, as I said, by more point-scoring moments in the France game) - they are Welsby, Lewis, Radley, Williams, Thompson, King. Radley, although he's in the middle of this group is the darkest orange line, possibly because he played quite a bit in both games, while Welsby and Lewis didn't play in the Tonga game.

Then we have the next darkest section, a tomato ketchup red, with Ashton, Litten and Walters. Ashton only played in the France game, Litten played in both but only 20 minutes of the Tonga game, but Walters played in both.

The darkest section, a deep red wine sort of colour, is those players who played large parts in both matches. They are Pearce-Paul, Savala, Smith, Young and Brimson, who seem to be McDermott's core group, plus whichever other winger he picks and a hooker.

That's also reflected in the network graph, which there are now enough data points for:

( Under the cut )

I didn't expect Williams to be that far out, given he's captain and played in both matches.

England's hopes rest on the Tonga vs Samoa game which was always one of my picks for most interesting match of the group stage.

Animals:

The country that brought its elephants back from the brink - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-42367560

Economics:

How a razor revolutionised the way we pay for stuff - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39132802

Food:

Smarties: How the stocking staple got its name - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-42244389

History:

The mystery of South Africa's golden harp - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-42310331

Miscellaneous:

Wales' festive swims: Chills and thrills of Christmas dips - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-42020547

The guidebook that led me to a lost corner of England - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/stories-42425157

Why things may be not be as bad as we think - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-42329014

Strictly's Bruno Tonioli in tears on Desert Island Discs - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-42467471

George Michael's Goring neighbours share memories one year on - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-42238343

Can you recycle wrapping paper? - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-42426888

Benazir Bhutto assassination: How Pakistan covered up killing - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-42409374

Science:

Hydrothermal Vents Weren't Home? - https://www.science.org/content/blog-post/hydrothermal-vents-weren-t-home

Extraction and Salting-Out - https://www.science.org/content/blog-post/extraction-and-salting-out

Sport:

Why sport on Christmas Day is actually not all bad - https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/42183157

Cricket:

Ashes: The tales from England's travelling fans in Australia - https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/42471806

Rugby:

Stephen Colbert Learns To Play Rugby With New Zealand's All Blacks - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F9hStjBT-U8

Technology:

The iPhone at 10: How the smartphone became so smart - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38320198

How the humble S-bend made modern toilets possible - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41188465

Why did we use leaded petrol for so long? - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40593353

TV dinners: The hidden cost of the processed food revolution - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39490182

England Match 1:

Because of poor decisions by International Rugby League I couldn't watch the match anywhere so was listening to it on the radio. Truly, Robbie Hunter-Paul is an international treasure.

Not entirely sure why the English press were saying it was a shock, other than them never giving Tonga the credit they are due.

If they'd said the first Tongan try was a shock, that would be true, it was against the run of play but after that it was a lot more even.

I'm a Saints fan, spiritually, I prefer what McDermott was trying to get this England team to do rather than the kind of rugby Shaun Wane had them playing. On the other hand, Wane looked at the players he had and played them in a system that worked to their strengths. If you're going for quick and clever, why are you not playing Mikey Lewis (never mind Jake Connor who didn't even get picked)? George Williams and Harry Smith have their uses, but quick and clever isn't it.

I don't blame him for some of the errors because the England players appeared to develop poor decision making skills every time they got into the Tongan 20 meters, but there was some oomph lacking.

I don't know if McDermott's made that choice because he doesn't think this front row can bring the biff, and they're big units but they don't scare me the way say Burgesses plural, or Elliott Whitehead or James Graham did. (Challenge, go a whole thing without mentioning Jamie Graham, glorious failure).

So fine, you aren't doing wham bam rugby, you're running the ball instead, but then you have to involve the wingers, especially if one of them is Dom Young. And that seemed to be missing.

So England now have to rely on beating France and Lebanon and hoping the other results go their way. I'm going to be really upset about either England or PNG not making it, I fear.

Data visualisation project:

Much like the last World Cup, I'm doing a small data visualisation project to see if I can spot patterns in player selections and how the team performs.

Now one game doesn't give much data, so here is what I have so far.

England's point-scorers by name and time

( Under the cut )

Because there were only two tries for England, the chart of which players are on the pitch when England score is uninformative. The one for "who is on the pitch when England concede" looks like this.



You can see Thompson and Havard coming on and off, and Jez Litten being given the last 20 minutes.

The two equivalent bar charts for which players were present for point-scoring and point-conceding moments are below.

( Two barcharts under the cut )

The two matrix charts of who was together when England scored and conceded are below. There's not yet enough data for the equivalent network graphs.

( Under the cut )

Harvard and Walters were the players present for relatively fewer point-conceding moments, being in the darkest purple section for scoring but not for conceding (yes, I know I'm being nice about Wigan players. Yes, it feels wrong).

It'll be interesting to see what patterns develop over time.

If you would like a nice, in-depth and reasonable preview of the World Cup, may I recommend this from the Maroon Observer.

Here I am all about pretty pictures and bemoaning there only being 2 Saints players at the World Cup and one of those spent most of the season injured.

What do the network diagrams look like?





The two teams that are sticking out are Papua New Guinea and France. Teams stick out if their players play for clubs who don't have a lot of other participants playing for other national teams. If the previous pattern that sticking out = weaker remains true, this means Tonga have been stuffed over by the draw and have a harder route to qualify for the semifinals. They would need to beat one of Samoa or England to qualify, while England and Samoa only have to beat Papua New Guinea and France. No diss on Papua New Guinea intended, because I really want them to do well.

I think Papua New Guinea are pulled out because so many of their players play for London Broncos who don't have any other representatives while the Cook Islands players are spread over more club teams so the weight of any individual team doesn't pull them out in the same way.

The club team with the most representatives are the New Zealand Warriors and the Sydney Roosters who both have 13. They are followed by the mysteriously un-city-ied Dolphins and Penrith Panthers on 12, and Manly Warringah Sea Eagles, Melbourne Storm and Toulouse Olympique on 11.

Because 8 of the teams are clustered together, Fiji are the team in the geometric centre of the graph, while Tonga and Australia are probably the "gravitational" centre. Hull Kingston Rovers and South Sydney Rabbitohs are the club teams closest to the physical centre.

The other thing that strikes me is a suspicion that the NRL must be relatively evenly matched because the Australian squad aren't dominated by one club team, unlike the way say France are by Toulouse Olympique. (Until the first match, I promise not to comment on the excessive number of Wigan players in the England squad. Brian McDermott, you'd better have a good reason for not starting Jez Litten.)

The one upside to there only being ten teams is that it's relatively quick to make the diagrams so I hope to have the women's and, data permitting, the wheelchair teams graphs ready shortly.

It turns out me not watching races doesn't always equal a Ferrari win (busy looking at the Bayeux tapestry, report eventually).

Baku historically has either had an interesting qualifying or an interesting race. Qualifying was exciting, so I wasn't expecting much from the race. I was right not to. I was fascinated that the press all went with "Baku Chaos Bonanza", which is a very blogger take, but this race wasn't, except the Red Bull psychodrama. (And no, BBC, Max did not sound calm.)

BBC suggesting that driver to driver comms would be interesting. Probably, but also more beep than word. It would also end in thumping - see also, Norris and Colapinto in this race. I would also like to bless Mark Priestley for saying "Albon = alright" was the most important thing after his accident.

The other odd thing was the soft tyres lasting longer than the medium. Even on a track with little wear, that is odd. Were the sudden rash of incidents around lap 30 - the Norris spin and the Albon crash - due to tyres wearing out because people were waiting for a safety car and just stayed on their first set of tyres too long?

The scrutineering data for the Italian Grand Prix is straightforward.

( Bar chart under the cut )

Somehow, despite being the first car out, Leclerc isn't the least tested.

The χ² for the race is 1.38, so any differences aren't statistically significant.

For the season to date, it looks like this:



The "tested less than expected" cars are definitely further from expected than the "over-tested" cars. I think that's because the Aston Martin and Cadillac teams have remained what we will politely call "not good", while the rest of the teams have come closer together in terms of results.

The χ² for the season up to the end of the Italian Grand Prix is 4.32 so any differences aren't statistically significant, but the number is still increasing.

I would like to pretend I had something more reasonable to say but ... I hate being a Ferrari fan. Why are they always like this?

I don't, in any way, blame either driver for the first corner - that's racing. I blame the team for not coming up with a working strategy for the one remaining car.

The racing was fun while it lasted, but I trust this has finally ended any belief George Russell has that there is driver equality at Mercedes.