A Maths/Probability Question

[redfiona99]

Based on something that happened to me in RL.

We have 3 cards, marked E, S and F. They are drawn 8 times. What is the probability of the draw being:

1 - E, S, F
2 - E, S, F
3 - S, E, F
4 - E, S, F
5 - S, F, E
6 - E, S, F
7 - S, E, F
8 - S, F, E

Now they were all supposed to be independently drawn, so I think I have to add the probability of each independent draw rather than multiplying them. What's confusing me is whether or not each line is 1/3 x 1/2 or whether I have to take into account the probability of the first pick when I work out the probability of the second pick.

(In case anyone is wondering what the RL scenario was, it was the running order for weapons in a match, randomised so no-one would have an advantage. I just want to know why Lady Luck kept putting me (Foil) on last.)

Comments

[lilacsigil.livejournal.com]

I think you would only have to go 1/2 if you had a Lady or the Tiger scenario where you calculated the probability after knowing one of the three. In this case you are calculating probability of one of three positions each time, so 1/3! But, yes, you are last a lot!

[redfiona99.livejournal.com]

I didn't mind, because my teammates were a 12 year old epeeist (okay, so he might have been 15 but young anyway) and a sabreur with no self belief, but I like knowing I wasn't being paranoid.