redfiona99: (Default)
[personal profile] redfiona99
Late because of work

The stacked bar charts have come out a lovely near jersey yellow. I approve of this serendipity.



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The only teams that didn't suffer a withdrawa were Decuninck-Quick Step, Jumbo Visma, Movistar and Sunweb.



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Four stages, stages 8, 11, 17 and 19 make up almost half of the total withdrawals. According to one guide stage 11 was supposed to be an innocuous stage and 19 was supposed to be a recovery day, so it could be due to people withdrawing due to previous damage. Or wasp stings. Which yeah, getting stung in the mouth is nasty!

Interestingly, the overall Kaplan Meier survival curve does seem to have 3 sections, which do marry up to the three weeks, with a slight slope, a deeper slope and then a slight slope again.

Visually, the individual team Kaplan Meiers are too busy to get much out of, although you can still see Ag2R's no-good bad-day. Next year, I'll see if I can get the colours to match up with the teams a bit better.



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The week 3 withdrawals are pretty evenly divided.


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As the weeks progressed, there were more withdrawals due to DNS, possibly reflecting wear and tear. The mid-stage abandons reduced as the weeks went on, possibly due to sheer stubbornness of riders. The outside of time limit withdrawals only occurred in weeks 1 and 3, poor John Degenkolb aside, both were at mountain stages. There being only 3 outside of time withdrawals shocks me.



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Most withdrawals were mid-stage abandonments, which again suggests that the only way of stopping riders is either damaging them beyond carrying on, or holding the World Championships that close to the TDF that time trialists withdraw to be ready for them.



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I'd like to take the opportunity to link to this really neat analysis - https://twitter.com/xavierdisley/status/1308009665696063488?s=03 - where Pogacar's energy output on that amazing time trial stage is compared to that of others. It's fascinating.

Date: 2020-09-22 10:57 pm (UTC)
ioplokon: purple cloth (Default)
From: [personal profile] ioplokon
Definitely an eventful tdf. I think it's interesting how shocked people are at Pogacar sneaking into first on the TT - the stage seemed designed to facilitate that outcome and with Jumbo riding so strong, it was his only real chance to attack. (Too short and too steep to favor any of the true time trialists) I think he even said he and his team were targeting that stage for him from the start. Of course, you don't expect him to win by quite so much! Or to pull off the polkadot win (though again, seems like the race was designed to allow for the possibility of a GC contender getting it)

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