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As I'd updated the Shearer+Kane+Salah comparison, it was easy to update the equivalent comparison that includes Erling Haaland.
In Haaland or Bug, I did say it would be interesting to see what an extra year's data would do to Haaland's curves.
And it has done interesting things.
Part of the problem is his 2023-2024 season would have been spectacular for anyone else, but was only "on standard" for him, so where his curves have been sky-rocketing previously, they've now plateaued, and on the 'extrapolated' curves, that means they're some interesting downward parabola shapes.
First the Percentage of Games Played
At the point where everyone had reached 23 years old:
( Behind the cut )
In this chart, Kane and Shearer have similarly angled increases (although Shearer's percentage is lower), while Salah has a dipping parabola (he missed a lot of games at the age of 22 which is still affecting his up to 23 curve, although his percentage of games played went up to higher than it was before).
Haaland's curve is now plateauing, but that's because he has played a high percentage of games for several years, which always leads to concerns (Link to "Much Too Much, Much Too Young" by the Specials
In the "extrapolated" curves, all the players have downward turning parabolas. Haaland's is the worst because of the limited data, but Salah's has also gone down because of his 2023-2024 injuries (may he be kept from further hamstring problems). And Kane and Shearer are now meeting at the same point.
( Beneath the cut )
Next we have goals per game
It is still weird curves ahoy, because Kane and Shearer's are still upward-facing banana-shaped.
( Beneath the cut )
Haaland's downward facing parabola really is just due to other seasons being ridiculous and this one just being very good. I also find it amusing that three of the lines - Shearer's, Kane's and Haaland's - meet at more or less the same point. I think it's because they've always been out and out strikers, while Salah used to be a winger.
With the extrapolated chart, it's another serious case of "insufficient data for Haaland"
( Under the cut )
The curve is only so steep because there is so little data.
Kane's is skyrocketing because of his excellent 2023-2024 season.
And finally, goals per possible game:
Up to 23 is more banana-shapes, with Salah so much lower because that was when he was definitely still a winger.
( Beneath the cut )
Again, the same three lines - Shearer's, Kane's and Haaland's - meet at more or less the same point.
The extrapolated curves look odd for Haaland, because of lack of data again (and relative dropping off of goals per game), and Kane's skyrocket of a 2023-2024 season
( Beneath the cut )
Manchester City, and therefore Haaland's relatively poor 2024-2025 is going to do things to my graphs again next time, isn't it?
(I do think cause and effect are that way round. I think the way Guardiola has City set up, they miss Rhodri a lot more than they miss Haaland when he's not there.)
In Haaland or Bug, I did say it would be interesting to see what an extra year's data would do to Haaland's curves.
And it has done interesting things.
Part of the problem is his 2023-2024 season would have been spectacular for anyone else, but was only "on standard" for him, so where his curves have been sky-rocketing previously, they've now plateaued, and on the 'extrapolated' curves, that means they're some interesting downward parabola shapes.
First the Percentage of Games Played
At the point where everyone had reached 23 years old:
( Behind the cut )
In this chart, Kane and Shearer have similarly angled increases (although Shearer's percentage is lower), while Salah has a dipping parabola (he missed a lot of games at the age of 22 which is still affecting his up to 23 curve, although his percentage of games played went up to higher than it was before).
Haaland's curve is now plateauing, but that's because he has played a high percentage of games for several years, which always leads to concerns (Link to "Much Too Much, Much Too Young" by the Specials
In the "extrapolated" curves, all the players have downward turning parabolas. Haaland's is the worst because of the limited data, but Salah's has also gone down because of his 2023-2024 injuries (may he be kept from further hamstring problems). And Kane and Shearer are now meeting at the same point.
( Beneath the cut )
Next we have goals per game
It is still weird curves ahoy, because Kane and Shearer's are still upward-facing banana-shaped.
( Beneath the cut )
Haaland's downward facing parabola really is just due to other seasons being ridiculous and this one just being very good. I also find it amusing that three of the lines - Shearer's, Kane's and Haaland's - meet at more or less the same point. I think it's because they've always been out and out strikers, while Salah used to be a winger.
With the extrapolated chart, it's another serious case of "insufficient data for Haaland"
( Under the cut )
The curve is only so steep because there is so little data.
Kane's is skyrocketing because of his excellent 2023-2024 season.
And finally, goals per possible game:
Up to 23 is more banana-shapes, with Salah so much lower because that was when he was definitely still a winger.
( Beneath the cut )
Again, the same three lines - Shearer's, Kane's and Haaland's - meet at more or less the same point.
The extrapolated curves look odd for Haaland, because of lack of data again (and relative dropping off of goals per game), and Kane's skyrocket of a 2023-2024 season
( Beneath the cut )
Manchester City, and therefore Haaland's relatively poor 2024-2025 is going to do things to my graphs again next time, isn't it?
(I do think cause and effect are that way round. I think the way Guardiola has City set up, they miss Rhodri a lot more than they miss Haaland when he's not there.)
