redfiona99: (Default)
redfiona99 ([personal profile] redfiona99) wrote2020-09-14 06:55 pm

TDF 2020 Week 2 Data Doodles

I'd just like to once again state quite how sketchy and preliminary these are.



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Lotto Soudal remain the team worst affected by withdrawals, although 3 teams are now short two riders. B&B, Decuninck- Quick Step, Ineos, Israel Start-Up Nation, Jumbo Visma, Movistar and Sunweb are the only teams that haven't lost anyone.

Stage 8 (CAZÈRES-SUR-GARONNE>LOUDENVIELLE, containing the first hors category climb of this years tour, or Nans Peters vs the mountain) remains the stage with the most withdrawals.



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This year's number of withdrawals is about average (can I find the [profile] letour tweet that said that? No, of course I can't!).

For the individual teams, you can see from the shape of the curve how suddenly the race *happened* to Ag2R-La Mondiale.



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What I was interested in was if the kind of withdrawals changed over time.

They haven't really.



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I am legitimately surprised that there has been only one withdrawal due to missing a time cut (and that was John Degenkolb after stage 1 happened to him almost more than it happened to anyone else except Philippe Gilbert and Rafael Valls.

Somehow they've been up many, many hills and the Grand Colombier and the only person cut was on stage 1. It's incredible.
ioplokon: purple cloth (Default)

[personal profile] ioplokon 2020-09-14 07:29 pm (UTC)(link)
So then that means the withdrawls are probably mostly tied to the crashes? I'm noodling on a bit about how the Tour has been becoming increasingly technical (basically because people hated Andy Schleck and want to make sure pure climbers don't do well - now you have to descend and go over gravel so the Velominatti are convinced you're butch enough + more technical sprints as well, which I suspect is meant to disfavor Sagan but also so you don't get the big sprint trains like you did 10 years ago), so it would be interesting to know if there are indeed more crashes or just the perception of more. Basically, the trend towards more "classics"-style riding, even in the stage races and towards routes that favor crossover MTB and Cross riders bc dudes like the "hardmen")

(also presumably, they decided to crack down on doping and so made the climbs less totally insane & upped the technical elements to compensate?)
Edited 2020-09-14 19:30 (UTC)
ioplokon: purple cloth (Default)

[personal profile] ioplokon 2020-09-15 07:41 pm (UTC)(link)
I think some of it is that the optimizers are at a disadvantage this year bc of course the pandemic throws off your program.

As for Sagan, I admit I've disliked him since the whole podium girl thing. Plus idk I think it's nice when stage wins matter for sprinters? Maybe the organizers want more breaks to go, though, or at least go longer... Plus cut down on the more reckless group sprints (I like Cav because he's not boring but... Definitely a guy who took a lot of risks, often on others'behalf)

But yeah, I'm sure some doping is still going on but I think it's not a bad idea to reset expectations a bit. Eta: and the technical difficulty aids in that - drugs don't make you a better bike handler. I just dunno if you can actually like, do that with a field so large...
Edited 2020-09-15 19:44 (UTC)
ioplokon: purple cloth (Default)

[personal profile] ioplokon 2020-09-18 08:11 am (UTC)(link)
I do appreciate that like 100% of his Twitter controversies were about how much he hates to lose bike races.